Bias
One recent paper citing "Taming Uncertainty" (R, Hertwig et al., MIT Press. 2019).
This is a cognitive science paper that reports four findings from an experiment with 463 participants.
(1) People are more likely to perceive what they hear repeatedly as true.
Even if they know it is a lie, they are more likely to perceive it as truth after a certain period of time.
(2) The more repeatedly you hear something, the more profoundly it influences your judgment.
(3) They believe that they are aware of the strength of the influence and are not affected by it, but
(4) people around them tend to underestimate the influence.
The author cited the book "Taming Uncertainty" as one of the references of previous studies that "it is quite hard being aware of their own biases".
Besides, even if the other person says, "I don't know if it's true," it's likely to be implicitly assumed to be true to some degree.
The feature of this paper is that it demonstrates how we assume what we hear repeatedly is true, and how this has a significant impact on our decision-making.
In this paper, I experimented with events that are simple to determine the truth, such as "the world's largest lithium deposit is in Bolivia," but in real life, the truth is often more complicated and ambiguous. Different people in different positions have different opinions, and there are likely to be "Truth" after the fact, which is a win-win situation. It is difficult to know what is considered Truth in such cases and how to properly define Truth.
Is this area dealt with in collective knowledge or metacognition?
A book on cognitive biases (quirks and distortions in the way we all think) [1] described the names of the phenomena of the four findings presented in this paper.
They are shown in blue.
(1) People are more likely to perceive what they hear repeatedly as true. Even if they know it is a lie, they tend to perceive it as truth after some time.
(2) The more repeatedly we hear something, the greater the influence on our judgment of things.
[Truth illusion effect] [1] pp.154-156
(3) Although I am well aware of the strength of the influence and am not affected by it,
[Naïve Realism] [1] pp.194-197
(4) I believe that people around me tend to underestimate its influence.
[Third Party Effect] [1] pp.194-197
In addition, several other group cognitive biases were also introduced. I thought the more people judged the more fair the conclusion would be, but that is surprising.
[Group Polarization] [1] pp.262-263
A phenomenon in which a group tends to be led to extreme conclusions. When a decision is made in a group, whether in the direction of danger or safety, group polarization occurs in the direction of the originally dominant opinion, and the conclusions drawn by the group tend to change in the direction of the majority opinion. This is an example of how group problem solving and decision making do not always go well.
[Risky Shift] [1]pp.264-266
This is a phenomenon in which a risky conclusion is more likely to be drawn in a group when making a risky decision.
[Kosher Shift] [1] pp.266-268
A phenomenon in which a group tends to lead to more conservative conclusions when making risky decisions.
References
[1] Supervised by Kazuhiro Ueda, Easily Understandable! The Psychology of Bias, NEWTON PRESS, 2023